Probabilistic forecasting is essential for modern risk management, allowing decision-makers to quantify uncertainty in critical systems. This paper tackles this challenge using the volatile REFIT household dataset, which is complicated by a large structural data gap. We first address this by conducting a rigorous comparative experiment to select a Seasonal Imputation method, demonstrating its superiority over linear interpolation in preserving the data's underlying distribution. We then systematically evaluate a hierarchy of models, progressing from classical baselines (SARIMA, Prophet) to machine learning (XGBoost) and advanced deep learning architectures (LSTM). Our findings reveal that classical models fail to capture the data's non-linear, regime-switching behavior. While the LSTM provided the most well-calibrated probabilistic forecast, the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) emerged as the superior all-round model, achieving the best point forecast accuracy (RMSE 481.94) and producing safer, more cautious prediction intervals that effectively capture extreme volatility.

-- Accurate multi - horizon retail forecasts are critical for inventory and promotions. We present a novel study of weekly Walmart sales (45 stores, 2010 - 2012) using a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) that fuses static store identifiers with time - varying exoge nous signals (holidays, CPI, fuel price, temperature). The pipeline produces 1 - 5 - week - ahead probabilistic forecasts via QuantileLoss, yielding calibrated 90% prediction intervals and interpretability through variable - selection networks, static enr ichment, and temporal attention. On a fixed 2012 hold - out dataset, TFT achieves an RMSE of $ 57.9k USD per store - week and an R of 0.9875. Across 5 - fold chronological cross - validation, the averages are RMSE = $ 64.6k USD and R = 0.9844, outperforming XGB, CNN, LSTM, and CNN - LSTM baseline models .

The \textit{Temporal Fusion Transformer} (TFT), proposed by Lim \textit{et al.}, published in \textit{International Journal of Forecasting} (2021), is a state-of-the-art attention-based deep neural network architecture specifically designed for multi-horizon time series forecasting. It has demonstrated significant performance improvements over existing benchmarks. In this work, we introduce the Quantum Temporal Fusion Transformer (QTFT), a quantum-enhanced hybrid quantum-classical architecture that extends the capabilities of the classical TFT framework. The core idea of this work is inspired by the foundation studies, \textit{The Power of Quantum Neural Networks} by Amira Abbas \textit{et al.} and \textit{Quantum Vision Transformers} by El Amine Cherrat \textit{et al.}, published in \textit{ Nature Computational Science} (2021) and \textit{Quantum} (2024), respectively. A key advantage of our approach lies in its foundation on a variational quantum algorithm, enabling implementation on current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices without strict requirements on the number of qubits or circuit depth. Our results demonstrate that QTFT is successfully trained on the forecasting datasets and is capable of accurately predicting future values. In particular, our experimental results on two different datasets display that the model outperforms its classical counterpart in terms of both training and test loss. These results indicate the prospect of using quantum computing to boost deep learning architectures in complex machine learning tasks.

The ionosphere critically influences Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), satellite communications, and Low Earth Orbit (LEO) operations, yet accurate prediction of its variability remains challenging due to nonlinear couplings between solar, geomagnetic, and thermospheric drivers. Total Electron Content (TEC), a key ionospheric parameter, is derived from GNSS observations, but its reliable forecasting is limited by the sparse nature of global measurements and the limited accuracy of empirical models, especially during strong space weather conditions. In this work, we present a machine learning framework for ionospheric TEC forecasting that leverages Temporal Fusion Transformers (TFT) to predict sparse ionosphere data. Our approach accommodates heterogeneous input sources, including solar irradiance, geomagnetic indices, and GNSS-derived vertical TEC, and applies preprocessing and temporal alignment strategies. Experiments spanning 2010-2025 demonstrate that the model achieves robust predictions up to 24 hours ahead, with root mean square errors as low as 3.33 TECU. Results highlight that solar EUV irradiance provides the strongest predictive signals. Beyond forecasting accuracy, the framework offers interpretability through attention-based analysis, supporting both operational applications and scientific discovery. To encourage reproducibility and community-driven development, we release the full implementation as the open-source toolkit \texttt{ionopy}.

Forecasting geopolitical conflict from data sources like the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) is a critical challenge for national security. The inherent sparsity, burstiness, and overdispersion of such data cause standard deep learning models, including the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), to produce unreliable long-horizon predictions. We introduce STFT-VNNGP, a hybrid architecture that won the 2023 Algorithms for Threat Detection (ATD) competition by overcoming these limitations. Designed to bridge this gap, our model employs a two-stage process: first, a TFT captures complex temporal dynamics to generate multi-quantile forecasts. These quantiles then serve as informed inputs for a Variational Nearest Neighbor Gaussian Process (VNNGP), which performs principled spatiotemporal smoothing and uncertainty quantification. In a case study forecasting conflict dynamics in the Middle East and the U.S., STFT-VNNGP consistently outperforms a standalone TFT, showing a superior ability to predict the timing and magnitude of bursty event periods, particularly at long-range horizons. This work offers a robust framework for generating more reliable and actionable intelligence from challenging event data, with all code and workflows made publicly available to ensure reproducibility.

Transaction fee prediction in Bitcoin's ecosystem represents a crucial challenge affecting both user costs and miner revenue optimization. This study presents a systematic evaluation of six predictive models for forecasting Bitcoin transaction fees across a 24-hour horizon (144 blocks): SARIMAX, Prophet, Time2Vec, Time2Vec with Attention, a Hybrid model combining SARIMAX with Gradient Boosting, and the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT). Our approach integrates comprehensive feature engineering spanning mempool metrics, network parameters, and historical fee patterns to capture the multifaceted dynamics of fee behavior. Through rigorous 5-fold cross-validation and independent testing, our analysis reveals that traditional statistical approaches outperform more complex deep learning architectures. The SARIMAX model achieves superior accuracy on the independent test set, while Prophet demonstrates strong performance during cross-validation. Notably, sophisticated deep learning models like Time2Vec and TFT show comparatively lower predictive power despite their architectural complexity. This performance disparity likely stems from the relatively constrained training dataset of 91 days, suggesting that deep learning models may achieve enhanced results with extended historical data. These findings offer significant practical implications for cryptocurrency stakeholders, providing empirically-validated guidance for fee-sensitive decision making while illuminating critical considerations in model selection based on data constraints. The study establishes a foundation for advanced fee prediction while highlighting the current advantages of traditional statistical methods in this domain.

This study proposes a novel approach for dynamic load balancing in Software-Defined Networks (SDNs) using a Transformer-based Deep Q-Network (DQN). Traditional load balancing mechanisms, such as Round Robin (RR) and Weighted Round Robin (WRR), are static and often struggle to adapt to fluctuating traffic conditions, leading to inefficiencies in network performance. In contrast, SDNs offer centralized control and flexibility, providing an ideal platform for implementing machine learning-driven optimization strategies. The core of this research combines a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) for accurate traffic prediction with a DQN model to perform real-time dynamic load balancing. The TFT model predicts future traffic loads, which the DQN uses as input, allowing it to make intelligent routing decisions that optimize throughput, minimize latency, and reduce packet loss. The proposed model was tested against RR and WRR in simulated environments with varying data rates, and the results demonstrate significant improvements in network performance. For the 500MB data rate, the DQN model achieved an average throughput of 0.275 compared to 0.202 and 0.205 for RR and WRR, respectively. Additionally, the DQN recorded lower average latency and packet loss. In the 1000MB simulation, the DQN model outperformed the traditional methods in throughput, latency, and packet loss, reinforcing its effectiveness in managing network loads dynamically. This research presents an important step towards enhancing network performance through the integration of machine learning models within SDNs, potentially paving the way for more adaptive, intelligent network management systems.

Detecting and analyzing complex patterns in multivariate time-series data is crucial for decision-making in urban and environmental system operations. However, challenges arise from the high dimensionality, intricate complexity, and interconnected nature of complex patterns, which hinder the understanding of their underlying physical processes. Existing AI methods often face limitations in interpretability, computational efficiency, and scalability, reducing their applicability in real-world scenarios. This paper proposes a novel visual analytics framework that integrates two generative AI models, Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), to reduce complex patterns into lower-dimensional latent spaces and visualize them in 2D using dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA, t-SNE, and UMAP with DBSCAN. These visualizations, presented through coordinated and interactive views and tailored glyphs, enable intuitive exploration of complex multivariate temporal patterns, identifying patterns' similarities and uncover their potential correlations for a better interpretability of the AI outputs. The framework is demonstrated through a case study on power grid signal data, where it identifies multi-label grid event signatures, including faults and anomalies with diverse root causes. Additionally, novel metrics and visualizations are introduced to validate the models and evaluate the performance, efficiency, and consistency of latent maps generated by TFT and VAE under different configurations. These analyses provide actionable insights for model parameter tuning and reliability improvements. Comparative results highlight that TFT achieves shorter run times and superior scalability to diverse time-series data shapes compared to VAE. This work advances fault diagnosis in multivariate time series, fostering explainable AI to support critical system operations.

Organizing and managing cryptocurrency portfolios and decision-making on transactions is crucial in this market. Optimal selection of assets is one of the main challenges that requires accurate prediction of the price of cryptocurrencies. In this work, we categorize the financial time series into several similar subseries to increase prediction accuracy by learning each subseries category with similar behavior. For each category of the subseries, we create a deep learning model based on the attention mechanism to predict the next step of each subseries. Due to the limited amount of cryptocurrency data for training models, if the number of categories increases, the amount of training data for each model will decrease, and some complex models will not be trained well due to the large number of parameters. To overcome this challenge, we propose to combine the time series data of other cryptocurrencies to increase the amount of data for each category, hence increasing the accuracy of the models corresponding to each category.

Capturing complex temporal patterns and relationships within multivariate data streams is a difficult task. We propose the Temporal Kolmogorov-Arnold Transformer (TKAT), a novel attention-based architecture designed to address this task using Temporal Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks (TKANs). Inspired by the Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), TKAT emerges as a powerful encoder-decoder model tailored to handle tasks in which the observed part of the features is more important than the a priori known part. This new architecture combined the theoretical foundation of the Kolmogorov-Arnold representation with the power of transformers. TKAT aims to simplify the complex dependencies inherent in time series, making them more "interpretable". The use of transformer architecture in this framework allows us to capture long-range dependencies through self-attention mechanisms.